Modelling urban spatial change: a review of international and South African modelling initiatives

August 2013Urban growth and land use change models have the potential to become important tools for urban spatial planning and management. Before embarking on any modelling, however, GCRO felt it was important to take note of, and critically assess lessons to be learnt from international experience and scholarship on spatial modelling, as well as a number of South African experiments that model future urban development. In 2012, GCRO initiated preliminary research into current international and South African modelling trends through a desktop study and telephone, email and personal interviews. This Occasional paper sets out to investigate what urban spatial change modelling research is currently being undertaken internationally and within South Africa. At the international level, urban modelling research since 2000 is reviewed according to five main categories: land use transportation (LUT), cellular automata, urban system dynamics, agent-based models (ABMs) and spatial economics/econometric models (SE/EMs). Within South Africa, urban modelling initiatives are categorised differently and include a broader range of urban modelling techniques. Typologies used include: provincial government modelling initiatives in Gauteng; municipal government modelling initiatives; other government-funded modelling research; and academic modelling research. The various modelling initiatives described are by no means a comprehensive review of all urban spatial change modelling projects in South Africa, but provide a broad indication of the types of urban spatial change modelling underway. Importantly, the models may form the basis for more accurate and sophisticated urban modelling projects in the future. The paper concludes by identifying key urban modelling opportunities and challenges for short- to long-term planning in the GCR and South Africa.Written by Chris Wray, Josephine Musango and Kavesha Damon (GCRO) Koech Cheruiyot (NRF:SARChI chair in Development Planning and Modelling at Wits

Maternal and perinatal outcomes in women with eclampsia by mode of delivery at Riley Mother Baby Hospital: A longitudinal case-series study

Background: Eclampsia, considered a serious complication of preeclampsia, remains a life-threatening condition among pregnant women. It accounts for 12% of maternal deaths and 16–31% of perinatal deaths worldwide. Most deaths from eclampsia occurred in resource-limited settings of sub-Saharan Africa. This study was performed to determine the optimum mode of delivery, as well as factors associated with the mode of delivery, in women admitted with eclampsia at Riley Mother and Baby Hospital. Methods: This was a hospital-based longitudinal case-series study conducted at the largest and busiest obstetric unit of the tertiary hospital of western Kenya. Maternal and perinatal variables, such as age, parity, medications, initiation of labour, mode of delivery, admission to the intensive care unit, admission to the newborn care unit, organ injuries, and mortality, were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences software version 20.0. Quantitative data were described using frequencies and percentages. The significance of the obtained results was judged at the 5% level. The chi-square test was used for categorical variables, and Fisher’s exact test or the Monte Carlo correction was used for correction of the chi-square test when more than 20% of the cells had an expected count of less than 5. Results: During the study period, 53 patients diagnosed with eclampsia were treated and followed up to 6 weeks postpartum. There was zero maternal mortality; however, perinatal mortality was reported in 9.4%. Parity was statistically associated with an increased odds of adverse perinatal outcomes (p = 0.004, OR = 9.1, 95% CI = 2.0-40.8) and caesarean delivery (p = 0.020, OR = 4.7, 95% CI = 1.3–17.1). In addition, the induction of labour decreased the risk of adverse outcomes (p = 0.232, OR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.1-2.0). Conclusion: There is no benefit of emergency caesarean section for women with eclampsia. Instead, it increases the risk of perinatal adverse outcomes, including the risk of admission to the newborn unit and perinatal death

Foreign Aid as an Instrument of US Foreign Policy Towards Africa A Case Study of Kenya

A Research Report by Sylvester Cheruiyot Koech, Submitted to the school of Humanities and Social Sciences in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Masters of Arts in International Relations

Corporate Social Responsibility Preferences in South Africa

What leads firms in South Africa (SA) to prefer specific CSR initiatives over others? The researchers analyzed secondary data from publicly available information of 231 listed firms on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. To determine national/institutional level preferences, ten CSR activities were identified among all firms and ranked in terms of their mean score of whether each firm participated in an activity or not. To determine industry/stakeholder influence, CSR activities were regressed against the firms’ industry. The preference for two CSR activities, education and training and enterprise development, are common across industries. This demonstrates the institutional effect of SA’s national Black economic empowerment (BEE) policy, which promotes such activities. Charitable donations, infrastructure provision, employee voluntarism and efforts in arts, culture and sports prevail in certain industries. The preferences of firms in the mining and construction industries stand out relative to other industries. Managers have to carefully select CSR activities that respond to various societal pressures. We show an example of management responses to pressures arising from both the national and industry level context. The study is the first to rank CSR activities of South African firms. We also reveal the promise of institutional theory to examine the phenomenon of CSR in the South African context

Exploring the Effects of Green Portfolio on REITs’ Return Performance in South Africa

AbstractThis paper investigates the extent of “greenness” of South African REITs; and whether green investments have any significant effects on the REITs return performance at the aggregate level. It used publicly-accessible green buildings and financial data obtained from the Green Building Council of South Africa’s (GBCSA) website and financial reports of 27 REITs that operate in South Africa, respectively. With only 11 REITs having green buildings in their portfolios, the results show phenomenal growth in the cumulative amount of green Gross Lettable Area (GLA) in under a decade – from a paltry 38,133 square metres of GLA in 2013, to over two million square metres of GLA in 2021. From panel analyses, consistent regression results show that green variables were positive and statistically significant across most of the estimated models. The statistically significant results imply that increased investments in green infrastructures have positive effects on REITs’ return performances. The study has implications for research and practice as far as the investments by REITs in green buildings in South Africa is concerned

Maternal and perinatal outcomes in women with eclampsia by mode of delivery at Riley mother baby hospital: a longitudinal case-series study

Background: Eclampsia, considered as serious complication of preeclampsia, remains a life-threatening condition among pregnant women. It accounts for 12% of maternal deaths and 16–31% of perinatal deaths worldwide. Most deaths from eclampsia occurred in resource-limited settings of sub-Saharan Africa. This study was performed to determine the optimum mode of delivery, as well as factors associated with the mode of delivery, in women admitted with eclampsia at Riley Mother and Baby Hospital. Methods: This was a hospital-based longitudinal case-series study conducted at the largest and busiest obstetric unit of the tertiary hospital of western Kenya. Maternal and perinatal variables, such as age, parity, medications, initiation of labour, mode of delivery, admission to the intensive care unit, admission to the newborn care unit, organ injuries, and mortality, were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences software version 20.0. Quantitative data were described using frequencies and percentages. The significance of the obtained results was judged at the 5% level. The chi-square test was used for categorical variables, and Fisher’s exact test or the Monte Carlo correction was used for correction of the chi-square test when more than 20% of the cells had an expected count of less than 5. Results: During the study period, 53 patients diagnosed with eclampsia were treated and followed up to 6 weeks postpartum. There was zero maternal mortality; however, perinatal mortality was reported in 9.4%. Parity was statistically associated with an increased odds of adverse perinatal outcomes (p = 0.004, OR = 9.1, 95% CI = 2.0–40.8) and caesarean delivery (p = 0.020, OR = 4.7, 95% CI = 1.3–17.1). In addition, the induction of labour decreased the risk of adverse outcomes (p = 0.232, OR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.1–2.0). Conclusion: There is no benefit of emergency caesarean section for women with eclampsia. This study showed that induction of labour and vaginal delivery can be successfully achieved in pregnant women with eclampsia. Maternal and perinatal mortality from eclampsia can be prevented through prompt and effective care